TL;DR
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for parts of the Upper Midwest today, covering far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota. Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into tonight, capable of producing large hail—some 2+ inches in diameter—damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Storm initiation is likely between 5pm and 8pm CDT, with the severe threat continuing through midnight. A conditional Marginal Risk extends south into the central Plains, where storm development is more uncertain.
Where is the highest risk today?
The Slight Risk area covers far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota, where the SPC has the highest confidence in robust thunderstorm development. This includes areas near Watertown, South Dakota, and extends northeast toward the Minnesota border.
A broader Marginal Risk stretches south across much of South Dakota, southern Minnesota, Nebraska, and northern Kansas. However, the SPC notes that convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage in this southern zone are "highly uncertain and conditional."
A separate Marginal Risk covers portions of the Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley, the Carolinas, and Virginia, where disorganized pulse-type storms may produce occasional damaging winds this afternoon.
What's driving today's severe weather?
A mid-level shortwave trough is ejecting eastward from central Canada across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. According to the SPC Day 1 outlook, this feature will help spin up a surface low across eastern South Dakota by early Saturday morning, with a cold front sweeping east-southeastward and a dryline extending south into the central Plains.
Ahead of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s combined with diurnal heating will create moderate instability. The SPC notes that "most guidance, including recent NAM/RAP runs, show minimal MLCIN along/ahead of the front in far northeast SD/western MN by 22-01Z," meaning the cap should break by late afternoon.
Deep-layer wind shear of 35-45 knots will easily support organized convection, with "strongly veering and gradually strengthening winds with height through low/midlevels" setting the stage for supercells.
When will the storms hit?
Thunderstorm development appears likely across far northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota between 5pm and 8pm CDT (22Z-01Z). Initial storms should take the form of supercells, posing a threat for large hail—including isolated stones 2+ inches in diameter.
The SPC warns that "convective mode will probably trend towards clustering fairly quickly given the presence of the cold front and strengthening low-level jet this evening." Any supercells that remain semi-discrete into the early evening may also produce tornadoes, thanks to greater low-level shear during this window. However, the SPC notes that "confidence in this scenario occurring remains fairly low due to the mode transition expected."
As storms cluster or form bowing line segments, scattered damaging winds should spread eastward through the evening. The severe threat will likely diminish across Minnesota into western Wisconsin by late evening as the narrow zone of instability shifts east.
What about the central Plains?
Storm development farther south—from southeast South Dakota and southwest Minnesota into Nebraska and northern Kansas—is much less certain. The SPC explains that "the better forcing for ascent with the shortwave trough will likely remain across western/northern MN along and northeast of the surface low."
Still, if storms can develop and sustain themselves, the environment would support severe hail and wind. There is "some signal in model guidance for successful convective initiation across southern NE into northern KS late this afternoon/evening where hotter surface temperatures are forecast." The SPC has extended the southern boundary of the Marginal Risk to account for this possibility, but confidence remains low.
Severe weather in the Southeast
A separate area of concern exists across the Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley, the Carolinas, and Virginia. Two weak mid-level disturbances—one over Arkansas and another along the central Gulf Coast—will track east-northeastward today, helping to trigger thunderstorms along a stalled surface front.
The SPC expects "generally disorganized/pulse-type convection to pose a threat for occasional damaging winds as diurnal heating destabilizes the boundary layer and steepens low-level lapse rates." Modestly enhanced mid-level flow across parts of the Mid-South and Virginia could also promote loosely organized clusters with some damaging wind potential.
Yesterday's severe weather
The past 24 hours brought 11 wind reports, 5 hail reports, and no tornado reports. Activity was concentrated in the Texas Panhandle, where a mesonet station near Colby, Kansas, recorded an 87 mph wind gust at 2145 UTC. In Plainview, Texas, an emergency manager reported a construction trailer flipped over, 6-8 vehicles damaged by flying debris, and fences down around midnight UTC.
Hail up to 2.25 inches in diameter was reported in Lake Tanglewood, Texas, with quarter to golf ball-sized stones accumulating across the area. A single wind report came from Kentucky, where a large oak tree was downed near Elk Horn.
What should you do?
If you're in the Slight Risk area across northeast South Dakota or western Minnesota, monitor radar closely this afternoon and evening. Have multiple ways to receive warnings—NOAA Weather Radio, a smartphone weather app, and local media. If you're outdoors, have a plan to get inside quickly.
Tornadoes that form in the evening or after dark are particularly dangerous because they're harder to see. Third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb, though Wireless Emergency Alerts for tornado warnings still break through on most phones. VORTEX Pro places phone calls when a tornado warning is issued for your location—calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, which can be critical during nighttime threats.
Large hail can shred crops, dent vehicles, and shatter windows. If you're driving and encounter hail, pull over safely, turn away from windows, and cover yourself with a blanket or jacket if possible. Do not park under an overpass—this creates a wind tunnel effect and is extremely dangerous during severe storms.
Looking ahead
SPC Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks both show Marginal Risk areas across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and parts of the Southeast, but no organized severe weather outbreak is expected through the weekend. The focus will shift east as the upper trough moves into the Great Lakes, with scattered pulse-type storms possible but no widespread severe threat anticipated.
VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.