What you need to know
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across western Kansas today, with isolated to widely scattered storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts expected this afternoon and evening. Additional isolated severe wind threats exist along the middle Texas coast, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the Columbia Basin into the northern Intermountain region.
Where is the highest risk today?
The Slight Risk area centers on western Kansas, extending southward into western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. This is where the most concentrated severe weather is expected, driven by a High Plains surface front and dryline interacting with strong daytime heating.
According to the SPC Day 1 outlook, "Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast in the vicinity of a High Plains surface front and dryline this afternoon with temperatures reaching the mid 90s to around 105 F."
The hot temperatures will combine with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s to produce moderate instability, with mixed-layer CAPE values of 1500–2500 J/kg across the region.
When will storms develop?
Storm initiation is expected by mid-afternoon, beginning in southeast Colorado and spreading along the front and dryline from northeast Colorado into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
The SPC notes that "isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms" should develop as a shortwave trough provides forcing for ascent. Storms will continue through the evening hours, with the potential for organized cold pool development across southwest Kansas as the low-level jet increases after sunset.
What are the primary threats?
Large hail
Forecast soundings show a vertically veering wind profile with 30–35 knots of deep-layer shear, sufficient for supercell development. The SPC highlights that storms along the front will feature "at least episodic supercell structures with a risk for large hail."
Damaging wind gusts
Storms forming in the hot, deeply mixed air mass west of the boundary are more likely to produce sporadic severe wind gusts. The SPC warns that "a corridor of more concentrated severe wind gusts may materialize across portions of southwest Kansas by evening, particularly if organized cold pool development occurs with an evening time low-level jet increase."
Other areas to watch
Middle Texas coast to Deep South Texas
As Tropical Storm Bertha continues westward over the northwest Gulf, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will spread inland, creating conditions favorable for widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. The environment will feature 30–40 knots of deep-layer shear, steep low-level lapse rates, and high precipitable water content.
The SPC notes that "the potential will exist for locally damaging downburst winds as storms spread west-southwestward along the coast into Deep South Texas during the afternoon and evening."
Eastern Carolinas
A very moist air mass south of morning convection across North Carolina may allow for moderate destabilization across parts of the coastal plain. Thunderstorms could develop near the intersection of outflow from morning storms and the sea-breeze boundary.
"Modest deep-layer shear will coincide with steepening low-level lapse rates and high PW content to yield locally intense wet microbursts capable of damaging winds this afternoon until around sunset," according to the SPC.
Columbia Basin and northern Intermountain West
Weak height falls and strengthening mid- and upper-level winds ahead of an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance vertical shear, supporting storm organization with a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.
Yesterday's severe weather
The past 24 hours saw relatively quiet severe weather across the nation, with 36 wind reports, 2 hail reports, and no tornado reports.
Wind damage was concentrated across Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine, and Maryland, with numerous trees and power lines downed by thunderstorm outflows. The strongest measured gust reached 68 mph on a Coast Guard vessel near Morgan's Point, Texas, at 0017 UTC. A mesonet station on MD-4 at the Patuxent River in Maryland recorded 59 mph gusts around 2214 UTC.
Quarter-sized hail was reported in two locations in New Hampshire—near Salem and in Plaistow—during the afternoon hours.
Looking ahead to Friday
The SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Slight Risk for portions of Minnesota and North Dakota, as well as parts of the Southeast and Great Lakes region. Another round of scattered severe storms is possible as upper-level energy continues to move across the northern tier.
Stay alert in the High Plains
If you're in western Kansas, western Oklahoma, or the Texas Panhandle, monitor radar closely this afternoon and evening. Have multiple ways to receive warnings—outdoor sirens may not be audible indoors, and if your phone is on Do Not Disturb, third-party weather apps won't alert you. Wireless Emergency Alerts for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings will still break through on most phones, but consider a backup plan for overnight threats.
VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.