TL;DR

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across three separate regions today: from Indiana into the upper Ohio Valley, over parts of eastern Montana, and across the Southern Plains. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary threats, with activity expected to peak this afternoon and evening. No tornado activity was reported in the last 24 hours, though 25 hail reports and 50 wind reports came in from the Upper Midwest and Plains.

Where is the highest risk today?

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined three distinct Slight Risk areas in its Day 1 Convective Outlook.

The most populated corridor runs from Indiana across the upper Ohio Valley. A deepening upper trough over the Great Lakes is driving strengthening large-scale ascent, which has already produced multiple clusters of thunderstorms from eastern Illinois into Ohio this morning. According to SPC, "there is the potential for a rather widespread damaging wind event across parts of PA/NY/NJ this afternoon/evening if sufficient heating and mesoscale organization of the clusters occur."

The second Slight Risk area covers eastern Montana. A large upper ridge over the High Plains is expected to encourage evening thunderstorm development as an upper trough approaches and low-level cyclogenesis occurs over southeast Montana. SPC notes that large hail is the primary concern in this region, though uncertainty remains about whether storms will be surface-based or elevated.

The third zone spans parts of the Southern Plains, where a weak upper low is tracking northeastward into Oklahoma. A band of stronger winds aloft east of the low, combined with daytime heating and ample moisture, will promote damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest storms.

What happened overnight?

Friday's severe weather was concentrated across the Upper Midwest and Plains, with no tornadoes reported but widespread hail and wind damage.

The 25 hail reports included golf ball-sized (1.75-inch) hail in Pleasantville, Iowa, at 0302 UTC, with multiple trained spotters and media sources confirming the size. York, Nebraska, saw both quarter-sized and ping pong ball-sized hail around 0330 UTC. Additional reports came from Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa, and Texas.

Wind damage was more widespread, with 50 reports spanning Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Nebraska, and Iowa. The strongest measured gust was 68 mph at 0315 UTC near Plymouth, Nebraska, recorded by a personal weather station. Alexandria, Minnesota's Chandler Field ASOS reported a 64 mph gust at 2040 UTC. Structural damage included a flattened barn near Elroy, Wisconsin, and multiple large trees down in Plattsmouth, Nebraska, where at least 2.87 inches of rain also fell.

When will the storms hit?

Indiana to Ohio Valley

Thunderstorms are already ongoing this morning across the Ohio Valley. SPC forecasts that one or more of these clusters will intensify by early afternoon and spread across the Slight Risk region. The corridor of greatest concern remains uncertain—computer models continue to vary on the exact track—but the window for damaging winds and isolated hail runs from mid-afternoon through the evening hours.

Key metros in the risk area include:

Northern High Plains

Evening thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Montana by early evening. A southerly low-level jet is forecast to intensify as the upper trough approaches, providing the lift needed for storm initiation. The peak window for large hail is late evening into the overnight hours.

Southern Plains

Storms are expected to fire this afternoon across the Southern Plains as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail through the evening. Oklahoma City and surrounding areas should monitor conditions closely this afternoon.

What does a Slight Risk mean?

A Slight Risk is the second level on SPC's five-tier severe weather scale (Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, High). It indicates that scattered severe storms are expected, with some potential for organized severe weather. Not every location in the risk area will see severe weather, but those that do could experience damaging winds of 58 mph or greater, hail one inch in diameter or larger, or tornadoes.

Today's outlook emphasizes wind and hail rather than tornadoes. SPC's discussion does not highlight tornado probabilities in any of the three Slight Risk areas, focusing instead on damaging straight-line winds and isolated large hail as the primary hazards.

What should you do?

If you're in one of the Slight Risk areas today, take these steps:

  • Monitor radar and warnings. Conditions can change quickly. Have multiple ways to receive warnings, including a NOAA Weather Radio and a smartphone weather app.
  • Secure outdoor items. Damaging winds can turn patio furniture, grills, and trampolines into projectiles.
  • Know your shelter location. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to an interior room away from windows. Damaging winds can break glass and bring down trees.
  • Avoid being caught outdoors. If you hear thunder, you're close enough to be struck by lightning. Move indoors immediately.
  • Don't rely on sirens. Outdoor warning sirens are designed to alert people outside, not inside buildings. They may not be audible indoors, especially over air conditioning or television noise.

Third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb mode on most smartphones, though Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings still break through on most phones by default. If you're concerned about sleeping through a warning tonight—particularly in the Northern Plains where storms may persist overnight—consider a solution that bypasses silent mode entirely.

What's next?

SPC's Day 2 outlook, valid for Sunday, June 7, maintains a Slight Risk across portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Wyoming, Montana, Virginia, and surrounding areas. The pattern remains active, with multiple rounds of severe weather possible through the weekend.

Day 3, valid for Monday, June 8, shows a Marginal Risk across the Ohio Valley, Mid-South, and Southeast as the upper trough continues to shift eastward.

Stay weather-aware today, especially if you're in the Slight Risk zones. Damaging winds and large hail are both capable of causing injury and property damage, even in the absence of tornadoes.

VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.