What you need to know
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across two regions today: the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota, and central Virginia into far north-central North Carolina. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats, with storms developing mid-afternoon and continuing into the evening.
After two consecutive days of widespread severe weather that produced 862 wind reports on July 4 and 556 reports on July 3, today's threat is more geographically focused but still carries the potential for significant hail—some exceeding two inches in diameter—across the Upper Midwest.
Where is the highest risk today?
The SPC Slight Risk areas cover two distinct regions separated by more than 1,000 miles:
Upper Midwest: Eastern North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, and western Minnesota face the most organized severe threat. Cities in the risk area include:
- Fargo, North Dakota
- Grand Forks, North Dakota
- Sioux Falls, South Dakota
- Watertown, South Dakota
- Marshall, Minnesota
Mid-Atlantic: Central Virginia into far north-central North Carolina, where damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. The risk area includes:
- Richmond, Virginia
- Charlottesville, Virginia
- Lynchburg, Virginia
- Danville, Virginia
Additional Marginal Risk areas extend across portions of the northern Great Basin, southern Montana, northern Wyoming, central Nebraska, and the lower Mississippi Valley, where isolated severe storms are possible but coverage will be more limited.
What's driving today's severe weather?
Upper Midwest setup
A well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Saskatchewan this morning will continue eastward throughout the day, pushing a surface low and cold front across the northern Plains. Ahead of this front, a warm and moist airmass is in place with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s across eastern South Dakota and northwest Minnesota, extending into the upper 90s to low 100s from central South Dakota into central Nebraska.
Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, strong boundary-layer heating will destabilize the atmosphere. The SPC outlook notes that "over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be in place by the mid afternoon, with a pocket of 3000 J/kg possible across southeast SD by the late afternoon."
Enhanced mid-level flow within the base of the shortwave trough will provide sufficient wind shear to support supercell thunderstorms early in the convective cycle, with large hail as the primary hazard.
Mid-Atlantic setup
A hot and very moist boundary layer will be in place near a lee trough this afternoon across Virginia and North Carolina, with mixed-layer convective available potential energy (MLCAPE) generally ranging from 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg. While vertical shear will be weak, the SPC notes that "relatively high storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms."
Forcing for storm initiation will come primarily from convergence along the lee trough, with the highest storm coverage expected from central Virginia into far north-central North Carolina.
When will the storms hit?
Upper Midwest timing: Thunderstorm development is anticipated first across western North Dakota and northwest Minnesota during the mid-to-late afternoon as the cold front interacts with the destabilized airmass. Initial storms will likely take supercell form with large hail as the primary threat.
SPC forecasters expect "a somewhat quick transition to a more linear mode" given the frontal forcing and likelihood of strong outflow boundaries from individual storms merging. Once this upscale growth occurs, damaging wind gusts will become the primary hazard through the evening hours.
Storm coverage is expected to decrease with southward extent from central South Dakota into northern Nebraska, where weaker wind shear will limit organized storm modes.
Mid-Atlantic timing: Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours across central Virginia, with the greatest coverage from the Richmond metro area westward through Charlottesville and southward toward the North Carolina border. An outflow-dominant storm mode will support upscale growth into loosely organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts.
Recent severe weather context
The past 48 hours have seen exceptional severe weather activity across the United States. Yesterday alone produced 255 wind reports and 18 hail reports spanning 21 states, following Friday's historic outbreak that generated 862 wind reports across 30 states.
No tornadoes were reported in the last 24 hours, marking a brief pause in tornado activity after several consecutive days of touchdowns across the central and northern Plains.
The wind reports from yesterday were heavily concentrated across the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Southeast, with significant tree damage reported in Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and the Carolinas. Multiple reports documented trees down on homes and power lines, with estimated wind speeds reaching 60-65 mph in portions of the Youngstown, Ohio area.
What to expect in other areas
Northern Great Basin and Rockies
A shortwave trough moving through southwestern Idaho this morning will continue northeastward across Idaho and western Montana. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening, with moderate mid-level flow (35-40 knot winds at 500 millibars) providing sufficient deep-layer shear to support episodic supercells and bowing segments capable of damaging winds and isolated hail.
Lower Mississippi Valley
A vorticity maximum currently moving from southwest Missouri into northwest Arkansas will continue slowly southward and southeastward throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture will support strong buoyancy development by afternoon, with MLCAPE values ranging from 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated, though weak vertical shear will limit storm organization. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible.
Safety guidance for today's threats
Large hail preparedness
If you're in the Upper Midwest Slight Risk area, monitor radar closely this afternoon and evening. Hail exceeding two inches in diameter can shatter windshields, dent vehicles, and cause significant property damage. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your location:
- Move vehicles into garages or covered parking if available
- Stay indoors away from windows
- Avoid travel during the peak threat window if possible
Damaging wind safety
For those in the Virginia and North Carolina risk areas, damaging wind gusts can down trees and power lines with little warning. Steep low-level lapse rates in today's environment favor strong downdrafts even from storms that don't appear particularly impressive on radar.
- Secure outdoor furniture and loose objects
- Avoid being outside or in vehicles during severe thunderstorm warnings
- Stay away from windows during the strongest wind gusts
Third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb mode on most smartphones, though Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings still break through on most phones by default. If you need alerting that works even when your phone is on silent—particularly overnight—VORTEX Pro can place phone calls when warnings are issued for locations you care about.
Tomorrow's outlook
The SPC Day 2 outlook (valid Tuesday, July 7) maintains a Slight Risk across portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Southeast as the upper-level pattern remains active. Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible as shortwave energy continues to move through a broad upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region.
Check back tomorrow for an updated outlook as forecast details come into sharper focus.
VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.