TL;DR

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and the Missouri Ozarks today. The primary threat is isolated to scattered severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. Marginal Risk areas extend into the southern High Plains, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and parts of western Nebraska and southern South Dakota.

The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued Thursday, August 6, 2026, highlights a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the central United States, with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard.

Where is the highest risk today?

The Slight Risk area covers northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and the Missouri Ozarks. This includes metro areas near Tulsa and Joplin.

Marginal Risk zones extend across:

  • The southern High Plains, including the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico
  • The Mid-Atlantic northward into southeastern New York and Virginia
  • Western Nebraska into far southern South Dakota

According to the SPC, "Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable primarily of a severe-wind threat will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of Ozarks and Great Plains."

What's driving today's severe weather?

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows a broad anticyclone centered over Arizona and Utah, with a trough over the Upper Midwest. This pattern supports modest west-northwesterly flow across the central Plains.

Several clusters of showers and thunderstorms were ongoing this morning from the mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Missouri Valley into the Oklahoma-Kansas border region. Much of this activity is positioned north of a residual front and outflow boundary draped from the Texas Panhandle east-northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley.

South of the boundary, a moist airmass with dewpoints in the 50s Fahrenheit west to lower 70s east will heat through the day in areas where morning convection clears. The SPC notes that "model forecast soundings show moderate destabilization occurring by mid-late afternoon across much of this region."

When will the storms hit?

Ozarks and Central Plains: Isolated to widely scattered storms will preferentially develop near the effective front and outflow boundary by mid to late afternoon. Storm organization is possible, with the main threat being isolated to widely scattered severe wind gusts. The SPC has adjusted the wind risk to include northern Oklahoma westward into the southern High Plains, where steep low-level lapse rates are forecast.

A couple of multicell clusters may evolve during the early evening. The SPC anticipates "a relative minimum in storm activity may occur over parts of the TX Panhandle in between storms over the northeast NM/western part of the TX Panhandle and higher coverage of storms farther east over northern OK into the Ozarks."

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: Thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the Appalachians by early afternoon, moving east-northeastward into lower elevations and toward a surface trough from the Atlantic Coastal Plains of Virginia north-northeastward into southeastern New York. Surface dewpoints near the trough will be in the lower to mid-70s F, contributing to moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg). Some stronger water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of isolated wind damage.

Western Nebraska and Southern South Dakota: Near an axis of low-level moisture where dewpoints will be in the 60s F, a pocket of moderate instability is forecast this afternoon with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, any cell that initiates near the instability axis could produce isolated severe gusts or large hail.

What happened overnight?

Severe weather was active across the central United States over the past 24 hours, with 38 wind reports and 11 hail reports. No tornadoes were reported.

Missouri: The most significant activity occurred early this morning in northern Missouri, where a mesonet site in Unionville measured a 69 mph wind gust at 1200 UTC (7:00 AM CDT). Reports of trees downed and uprooted, along with power poles downed across Unionville, accompanied the gust. A barn was significantly damaged along Route M between Pollock and Green City at 1208 UTC.

Kansas: Hail up to 2 inches in diameter was reported at 0359 UTC (10:59 PM CDT) 1 mile east of Emporia. Quarter to golf ball-sized hail fell across southeast Kansas from Severy to Melvern between 0206 UTC and 0358 UTC.

Arizona: Monsoon storms produced quarter-sized hail and wind gusts up to 63 mph in southern Arizona overnight. A mesonet station 3 miles north of Bisbee measured a 63 mph gust at 0433 UTC.

Georgia and South Carolina: Isolated strong thunderstorms downed trees and power lines across parts of the Southeast during the evening hours.

What to expect today

The primary hazard across the Slight Risk area is damaging wind gusts. Isolated large hail is also possible, particularly in western Nebraska and southern South Dakota.

If you live in or will be traveling through northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, or the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon and evening:

  • Monitor radar and local NWS forecasts closely between 3 PM and 10 PM CDT.
  • Secure outdoor furniture, trampolines, and other loose items that could become projectiles in strong winds.
  • Avoid being outdoors or on the water when storms approach.
  • If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your location, move indoors to a sturdy structure away from windows.

Third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb, though Wireless Emergency Alerts for tornado warnings still break through on most phones. For those concerned about nighttime severe weather, VORTEX Pro can place phone calls when warnings are issued — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number.

Tomorrow's outlook

The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook indicates a Marginal Risk for parts of the Mississippi Valley, northern Plains, Southeast, and Northeast on Friday, August 7. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible, but severe weather is expected to remain isolated.

VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.