TL;DR

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for much of Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and north Texas today. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will develop this afternoon and continue into tonight. The primary window runs from mid-afternoon through the overnight hours across the Central Plains and into the ArkLaTex region.

After a busy week across the Southeast, the severe weather focus shifts west to the Central Plains on Friday, May 8. A shortwave trough moving through the region will trigger scattered thunderstorms along a cold front, with conditions favorable for supercells producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Where is the Slight Risk today?

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of central and eastern Oklahoma under a Slight Risk in its Day 1 outlook. The risk area extends from southeast Kansas southward through Oklahoma and into north Texas.

Additional Marginal Risk areas cover:

  • The Ozarks region
  • Central and south Texas
  • Gulf Coast states from Florida through the Florida Panhandle

Yesterday's severe weather was concentrated along the Gulf Coast, with 21 wind reports and 4 hail reports across Florida. No tornadoes were reported. Today's setup represents a shift to the classic Plains severe weather pattern.

What's driving today's storms?

Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over western Kansas tracking southeastward. Ahead of the associated cold front, full sunshine across eastern Kansas and much of Oklahoma will lead to strong heating and atmospheric destabilization.

Dewpoints in the 50s, coupled with steep low- and mid-level lapse rates, will yield afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values of 1000–1500 J/kg. According to the SPC, "forecast soundings indicate favorable vertical shear profiles for supercell structures capable of large hail."

Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the front during the afternoon and track southeastward through the evening across Oklahoma and into north Texas.

When will storms develop?

Afternoon initiation: Storms are expected to fire along the cold front during the afternoon hours across eastern Kansas and central Oklahoma as daytime heating peaks.

Evening peak: The most widespread severe weather is forecast during the evening hours as storms track across Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and surrounding areas.

Overnight transition: Storms will likely organize into linear or bowing structures as they move into the ArkLaTex region overnight. While the overall severe threat should diminish by this time, the SPC notes that "storms may occasionally result in damaging wind gusts and hail."

What are the primary hazards?

Large hail is the main concern during the afternoon and early evening. Supercell thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail larger than golf ball size, particularly across central Oklahoma.

Damaging winds will become more likely as storms evolve into linear structures during the evening and overnight hours. Gusts could exceed 60 mph in the strongest segments.

Tornado threat: While not the primary focus, the SPC outlook does not rule out an isolated tornado. The shear profiles support rotating storms, though the relatively modest CAPE and dry air in the mid-levels may limit tornado potential.

Gulf Coast storms

A separate area of concern exists along the central Gulf Coast. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms were ongoing this morning along and north of a surface boundary extending from southeast Texas along the Gulf Coast into north Florida.

The SPC expects storm coverage to increase during the afternoon along the front, with "a few strong to severe cells expected." Gusty winds are the primary concern in this region—consistent with yesterday's activity, which produced numerous wind damage reports across the Florida Panhandle.

Between 1206 and 1757 UTC on May 7, the National Weather Service received 21 wind reports from Florida. Damage included downed trees, power lines, and minor structural damage in Vernon, Florida. Quarter-to-half-dollar-sized hail was reported in four locations, including Paxton, Florida.

What should you do?

If you're in the Slight Risk area across Oklahoma, Kansas, or north Texas:

  • Monitor radar and warnings throughout the afternoon and evening. Conditions can change quickly as storms develop.
  • Have multiple ways to receive warnings. Outdoor sirens may not be audible indoors, and third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb, though Wireless Emergency Alerts for tornado warnings still break through on most phones.
  • Move vehicles under cover if large hail is approaching. Golf ball–sized hail can shatter windshields and dent vehicles.
  • Avoid travel during the peak severe weather window if possible, especially after dark when visibility is reduced.

If you're along the Gulf Coast, remain aware of rapidly developing storms during the afternoon. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain are the main threats.

Looking ahead

The SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Slight Risk across portions of Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and the Southeast on Saturday, May 9. A Slight Risk also appears in the Day 3 outlook for Sunday across Texas, Louisiana, and the Southeast.

The pattern remains active across the southern tier of the United States into early next week, with multiple days of scattered severe weather likely. This is typical for early May, when the jet stream often sets up favorably for repeated severe weather events across the Plains and Southeast.

VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.