What you need to know

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and far west Texas today into tonight. Large hail is the primary concern, with damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two also possible. Storms will develop this afternoon and continue through the evening hours.

Where is the highest risk today?

The Slight Risk area covers much of New Mexico, extending into southeast Colorado and the far western tip of Texas. Cities in the risk area include:

  • Albuquerque, New Mexico
  • Santa Fe, New Mexico
  • Las Cruces, New Mexico
  • Roswell, New Mexico
  • Pueblo, Colorado
  • Trinidad, Colorado
  • El Paso, Texas (far western edge)

The SPC outlook emphasizes that the greatest severe weather potential will be across the central and southern portions of New Mexico, where atmospheric conditions are most favorable for supercell thunderstorms.

What's driving today's severe weather?

A large upper-level trough remains positioned over the western United States, with strong southwesterly winds aloft extending across the southern Rockies. According to the SPC, a shortwave trough that moved through northern New Mexico and southern Colorado overnight will depart the region this morning, leaving behind a brief period of atmospheric subsidence.

By afternoon, a combination of daytime heating and subtle forcing within the upper-level jet stream will trigger thunderstorm development across New Mexico. The atmospheric setup includes:

  • Deep-layer wind shear favorable for rotating updrafts and supercell structures
  • MLCAPE (mid-level convective available potential energy) of 1000-1500 J/kg, providing fuel for strong storms
  • Steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft, creating an environment particularly conducive to large hail

The SPC notes that "relatively steep mid level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft suggest that large hail is the main concern from these storms."

When will storms develop?

Thunderstorm initiation is expected during the afternoon hours as daytime heating maximizes across New Mexico. Storms will likely organize into supercells through the late afternoon and evening, with the severe weather threat continuing into tonight before activity gradually weakens.

The most intense storms are expected between roughly 3 PM and 10 PM MDT (21Z-04Z), though exact timing will depend on local terrain effects and the pace of atmospheric destabilization.

What hazards should you expect?

Large hail

Large hail is the primary threat today. The combination of strong updrafts, favorable wind shear, and cold temperatures aloft creates an ideal environment for hail production. Hail larger than one inch in diameter is possible, with some stones potentially reaching golf ball size (1.75 inches) or larger in the most intense supercells.

Yesterday's severe weather across Arizona and New Mexico produced 22 hail reports, including several instances of hail measuring 1.5 to 3 inches in diameter. Today's setup is similar, suggesting comparable hail potential.

Damaging winds

Locally damaging wind gusts are also possible, particularly where daytime heating is strongest. The SPC outlook indicates that downburst winds could accompany the stronger thunderstorms, especially as storms mature during the evening hours.

Isolated tornadoes

The SPC mentions that "a tornado or two could occur in terrain-favored areas." While tornadoes are not the primary threat, the favorable wind shear and low-level moisture could support brief tornadoes, particularly in areas where storms interact with local terrain features that enhance low-level rotation.

Yesterday's severe weather recap

Thursday brought active severe weather to Arizona and New Mexico, with 22 hail reports and 3 wind reports. The largest hail fell near Rio Rico, Arizona, where a CoCoRAHS spotter reported hailstones measuring 1.5 to 3 inches in diameter. Other notable reports included:

  • 1.75-inch hail near Hurley, New Mexico
  • 1.75-inch hail near McNary, Arizona
  • 73 mph wind gust in Safford, Arizona
  • Multiple trees downed near Pima, Arizona

No tornadoes were reported. Today's outlook suggests a continuation of the active weather pattern across the region, with similar hazards expected.

What should you do?

If you're in the Slight Risk area:

  • Monitor weather conditions throughout the afternoon and evening. Conditions can change quickly as storms develop.
  • Have multiple ways to receive warnings. NOAA Weather Radio, local news, and smartphone alerts all provide critical information when severe weather threatens.
  • Move vehicles under cover if large hail is approaching. Hail damage to vehicles was likely widespread yesterday and could occur again today.
  • Avoid travel during the most intense storms. Large hail and damaging winds create hazardous driving conditions.
  • Know where to shelter. If a tornado warning is issued, move to the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows.

The National Weather Service will issue severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings as needed throughout the day. These warnings provide specific information about storm location, movement, and expected hazards.

Looking ahead to Saturday

The SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Slight Risk for portions of Texas and New Mexico on Saturday, suggesting that the active weather pattern will continue into the weekend. The Day 3 outlook shows a Marginal Risk extending across parts of Texas, New Mexico, the Southeast, and Northeast on Sunday.

The western trough will gradually shift eastward over the coming days, spreading the severe weather potential to new areas while conditions improve across the southern Rockies.

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