What you need to know

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and early evening. Isolated tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible, with the most intense storms expected between 2pm and 7pm Central Time. Strong wind shear will support supercell development, though limited low-level moisture remains the primary limiting factor.

Where is the highest risk today?

The Slight Risk area covers central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, placing communities including Minneapolis, St. Cloud, Eau Claire, and Superior in the threat zone. This is the corridor where atmospheric conditions are most favorable for surface-based thunderstorms capable of producing all severe hazards.

Farther south, isolated storms may also develop along the cold front into southwest Iowa and eastern Nebraska, though coverage will be much lower in these areas. Any persistent storm could still pose a hail risk.

A separate area of interest exists along and east of the Guadalupe Mountains in southeast New Mexico and far west Texas, where an isolated strong storm is possible. However, SPC confidence is not high enough for severe probabilities in this region—yesterday's egg-sized hail report 14 miles southeast of Kent, Texas, at 12:55am CT was the only severe weather report in the nation over the past 24 hours.

What's driving today's severe weather setup?

Morning water vapor imagery shows fast west-southwesterly flow aloft across the central and northern Plains into the Midwest. Two shortwave troughs are in play: a fast-moving trough over eastern Wyoming and a second lower-level trough over central Kansas. Both features will track into the Midwest states by afternoon, providing the lift needed to initiate scattered thunderstorms.

The wind profile is the standout feature today. Forecast hodographs show strong low-level veering and increasing winds with height—a classic setup for rotating storms. One-kilometer storm-relative helicity (SRH) values are forecast to reach 200-300 m²/s², which is more than sufficient to support supercells and tornadoes if other ingredients come together.

The catch? Thermodynamics. Low-level moisture across the region is quite limited this morning, but strong southerly low-level winds ahead of the approaching troughs will help push dewpoints up to near 60°F across southern Minnesota by afternoon. According to SPC, this is barely sufficient for surface-based storms, but it's enough to support a few intense cells in the most favorable corridor.

When will the storms hit?

Thunderstorm development is expected to begin this afternoon, with the main window for severe weather running from 2pm to 7pm Central Time (20Z to 01Z).

The corridor most likely to see intense storms stretches from central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin during this timeframe. Storms may initially develop as discrete supercells capable of producing tornadoes and large hail. As the evening progresses, storms may transition to fast-moving bowing structures in Wisconsin, increasing the risk of damaging winds if they can remain surface-based.

Farther south into Iowa and Nebraska, any storm development will be more isolated and less organized, with the primary threat being hail from any cell that manages to persist.

What does a Slight Risk mean?

A Slight Risk is the second level on SPC's five-tier scale (Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, High). It indicates that scattered severe storms are expected, and some of those storms could produce significant severe weather.

In practical terms, a Slight Risk day means:

  • Not everyone in the risk area will see storms
  • Storms that do develop have a reasonable chance of becoming severe
  • Tornadoes are possible but not widespread
  • Residents should monitor weather conditions closely and be prepared to act on short notice

This is not a high-end severe weather day, but it's also not one to ignore—especially given the favorable wind shear for tornadoes across Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Cities and metros to watch

The following communities lie within or near the Slight Risk area and should monitor conditions closely this afternoon:

  • Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota — metro area sits in the heart of the risk zone
  • St. Cloud, Minnesota — central Minnesota corridor favored for supercell development
  • Duluth, Minnesota — northern edge of the risk area
  • Eau Claire, Wisconsin — northwest Wisconsin in the path of storms transitioning to bowing segments
  • Superior, Wisconsin — may see storms late in the event window

Residents in these areas should have multiple ways to receive warnings this afternoon and evening. Tornadoes that develop in this environment could be brief but intense, and lead time may be limited.

Safety actions for today

If you're in the Slight Risk area, take these steps now:

  • Check your alert sources. Make sure your phone's Wireless Emergency Alerts are enabled—these bypass Do Not Disturb and silent mode on most devices. Third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb, though Wireless Emergency Alerts for tornado warnings still break through on most phones.
  • Identify your safe space. The lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows. Interior rooms like bathrooms, closets, or hallways are best.
  • Monitor radar this afternoon. Storms will develop quickly once they initiate. If you see a Tornado Warning for your county, take shelter immediately.
  • Don't rely on sirens alone. Outdoor warning sirens are designed to alert people outside, not indoors. You need a way to receive warnings inside your home or workplace.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your location, act immediately. Do not wait to see the tornado—many are rain-wrapped and invisible until they're on top of you.

What about tomorrow?

SPC's Day 2 outlook shows no severe weather risk categories for Thursday, October 29. The pattern will quiet down across the Upper Midwest as the shortwave troughs move east and the cold front pushes offshore. Expect a much calmer day across the central United States.

The next chance for organized severe weather will depend on how the pattern evolves into the weekend, but for now, today's Slight Risk appears to be an isolated event rather than the start of a multi-day outbreak.

The bottom line

Today's Slight Risk for Minnesota and Wisconsin is driven by exceptional wind shear but marginal thermodynamics. That combination means storms will be scattered rather than widespread, but any storm that does develop in the favorable corridor has the potential to produce tornadoes, large hail, or damaging winds. The peak window is this afternoon into early evening, roughly 2-7pm Central Time.

If you're in the risk area, stay weather-aware. Have a plan, know your safe space, and don't ignore warnings.

VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.