TL;DR

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for portions of the central Plains today, where widely scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight. Large hail and damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph are the primary threats, with a tornado or two possible near the frontal boundary as low-level shear increases this evening.

Where is the highest risk today?

The Slight Risk area stretches across the central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook identifies this corridor as the primary zone for organized severe weather today.

Cities in or near the Slight Risk area include Kansas City, Wichita, Topeka, and Springfield, Missouri. More isolated severe weather may also develop from southwest Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley.

The setup today involves a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward from the Southwest across the central Plains. This feature is positioned between a slow-moving upper low over the western Great Basin and expansive upper ridging centered over the Texas and Louisiana coast. As the shortwave progresses northeastward through the central High Plains this afternoon and into the central Plains this evening, it will sharpen the frontal zone across Kansas and trigger convective initiation.

What's driving today's severe weather?

Two surface lows are positioned just downstream of the stronger flow aloft—one over southeast Colorado and another over central Kansas. A cold front connects these lows and extends northeastward from central Kansas to another low over northern Lake Michigan.

South of this frontal boundary, the airmass is exceptionally moist. Dewpoints in the upper 60s are reaching into south-central Kansas, with low 70s dewpoints extending through central Oklahoma. Strong heating is anticipated along and south of the front today, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the low 90s. Despite boundary-layer mixing, continued low-level moisture advection should keep afternoon dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s along the front in Kansas and east of the dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle.

These conditions are forecast to destabilize the airmass around 21Z (4 PM CDT). While lapse rates won't be overly steep, the warm and moist low-levels will still generate moderate to strong buoyancy—the atmospheric fuel necessary for thunderstorm development.

When will storms develop?

Convective initiation is expected this afternoon as increasing convergence along the front and dryline interacts with the destabilized airmass. The strongest mid-level flow will be displaced north and west of the frontal zone, but mid-level winds along and south of the front should still be strong enough to support moderate deep-layer vertical shear.

Initial storm mode is expected to be supercellular, meaning individual rotating thunderstorms capable of producing the most significant severe weather. As the evening progresses, modest upscale growth—where individual storms merge into larger complexes—will be possible across parts of Kansas, Missouri, and western to southern Illinois. However, the severe threat should become more isolated overnight as nocturnal stabilization sets in and storms begin to interact with one another.

What are the primary hazards?

Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats today. The SPC outlook notes that a few wind gusts from 65 to 75 mph are possible, strong enough to snap tree limbs, damage roofs, and cause power outages.

Tornado potential remains low but not zero. Ample low-level moisture coupled with an increase in low-level shear and storm-relative helicity by early evening could result in a tornado or two near the frontal boundary. The curved low-level hodographs—a measure of how wind speed and direction change with height—will favor rotating updrafts if storms can tap into surface-based instability.

Anyone in the Slight Risk area should monitor radar closely this afternoon and evening. If a tornado warning is issued for your location, move immediately to the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows.

What about tomorrow?

The SPC Day 2 outlook shows a Marginal Risk across portions of the Ohio Valley and Southeast on Wednesday, October 14. The Day 3 outlook maintains a Marginal Risk across the central and southern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region through Thursday. No high-end severe weather is anticipated in the extended outlook at this time.

For today, the focus remains on the central Plains, where the combination of strong instability, adequate shear, and a well-defined frontal boundary will support organized severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards—including a tornado or two.

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