TL;DR

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across eastern Nevada into northern Utah, and parts of the northern Plains including Wyoming, the Dakotas, and Nebraska. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail possible in the strongest storms. No tornado activity was reported in the last 24 hours, but 92 wind reports came in yesterday.

What's driving today's severe weather?

A broad upper-level trough is positioned over the Southern Rockies into Oklahoma and Texas, with relatively fast flow aloft extending from Nevada into Wyoming. This pattern is creating two distinct corridors for severe weather development today.

In the Great Basin, considerable cloud cover is limiting daytime heating across much of the region. However, a narrow corridor from eastern Nevada across north-central Utah is expected to see sufficient clearing to destabilize the atmosphere. Steep low-level lapse rates—the rate at which temperature decreases with height—will combine with favorable CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy, the atmospheric fuel for thunderstorms) to support a few high-based thunderstorms.

Across the northern Plains, a similar setup to Friday is unfolding. Clusters of high-based showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward from Wyoming into parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska through this afternoon and evening.

Where is the highest risk today?

The SPC's Day 1 Convective Outlook places a Slight Risk across two regions:

  • Eastern Nevada into northern Utah — A corridor where sufficient heating will overcome morning cloud cover, allowing for isolated to widely scattered severe storms.
  • Northern Plains — Parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Nebraska where eastward-moving storm clusters will pose a localized severe threat.

The Slight Risk is the second level on SPC's five-tier scale (Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, High). It indicates that scattered severe storms are possible, though coverage will be limited.

What are the primary threats?

Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard in both risk areas. High-based thunderstorms—storms with cloud bases well above the ground due to dry low-level air—are particularly efficient at producing strong downdrafts that can reach the surface as damaging winds.

In the Great Basin corridor, supercell structures are also possible. These rotating storms can produce large hail in addition to wind. The SPC notes that the strongest storms in this area may support hail as a secondary threat.

Across the northern Plains, favorable winds aloft combined with at least marginal CAPE will support locally damaging wind gusts and hail, similar to the setup that produced widespread wind reports on Friday.

When will storms develop?

Thunderstorm initiation is expected during the afternoon and evening hours in both regions—roughly 3 PM to 10 PM local time in each area.

In the Great Basin, storms will depend on sufficient daytime heating to break through the morning cloud deck. Peak activity is most likely during the late afternoon and early evening as heating maximizes.

In the northern Plains, storm clusters will spread eastward from Wyoming through the afternoon, continuing into the evening as they move across the Dakotas and Nebraska.

Yesterday's severe weather

Friday brought 92 wind reports, 1 hail report, and 0 tornado reports. The wind reports were heavily concentrated in multiple states, where thunderstorms produced numerous downed trees and power lines during the late afternoon and evening.

Notable reports included:

  • Multiple trees down on roads and power lines across Catawba, Cleveland, and Iredell counties in North Carolina between 1809 and 2046 UTC.
  • Trees down on structures in Bessemer City, North Carolina, and Davidson, North Carolina.
  • A measured wind gust of 58 mph at a mesonet station 4 miles south of Telferner, Texas, at 2000 UTC.

The single hail report came from 2 miles south of Spring, Texas, where 1.00-inch hail was reported at 2200 UTC.

Looking ahead

SPC's Day 2 outlook (valid Sunday, August 30) shows a Marginal Risk across parts of the Mississippi Valley, northern Plains, Northeast, and Great Lakes. Day 3 (valid Monday, August 31) maintains a Marginal Risk across similar regions, including the central Plains and Midwest.

The pattern suggests continued scattered severe weather potential across multiple regions through early next week, though no higher-end threats are currently anticipated.

What you should do

If you're in eastern Nevada, northern Utah, Wyoming, the Dakotas, or Nebraska today:

  • Monitor local NWS forecasts and radar through the afternoon and evening.
  • Secure outdoor objects that could blow away in strong winds.
  • If you're outdoors, have a plan to move indoors quickly if storms approach.
  • Avoid being under or near trees during thunderstorms—wind gusts can snap branches or topple entire trees with little warning.

Wireless Emergency Alerts for severe thunderstorm warnings will be sent to your phone if a warned storm threatens your location. Third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb, though Wireless Emergency Alerts for severe warnings still break through on most phones.

VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.