TL;DR

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states today, where scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening will bring damaging wind gusts of 50–60 mph along the I-95 corridor. Overnight, a separate hail threat develops across northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota, where supercells may produce large hail. Isolated severe storms are also possible across the central U.S. and Arizona.

Where is the highest risk today?

The Slight Risk area covers portions of the Mid-Atlantic, including parts of Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. The SPC's Day 1 Convective Outlook identifies the I-95 corridor as the primary zone for scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

According to the SPC, "seasonably strong heating of a moist airmass" will destabilize the boundary layer, with the 12 UTC sounding from Dulles, Virginia, sampling a 14 g/kg mean mixing ratio in the lowest 100 millibars. This deep moisture, combined with afternoon heating, will support scattered thunderstorm development through the late afternoon and early evening.

The atmospheric setup features a Bermuda high to the east and troughing over the Upper Midwest, creating a relatively nondescript pattern that nonetheless supports pulse severe storms in the afternoon heat.

What is the primary threat?

Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard today. The SPC forecasts "isolated strong to locally severe gusts (i.e., 50-60 mph) capable of scattered wind damage" with the stronger thunderstorm cores.

Large hail and frequent lightning are also possible, but the wind threat dominates the outlook.

When will storms develop?

Thunderstorm initiation is expected this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic, with the peak severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening hours—roughly 3 PM to 9 PM local time. Storms will move through the I-95 corridor during this window.

Activity should diminish after sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes and heating wanes.

What about the central U.S.?

Marginal Risk areas extend across portions of the central Plains, Ozarks, and Upper Midwest, where isolated severe storms are possible but confidence in specific corridors remains low.

Mid-Missouri Valley and Lake Superior region

A mid-level shortwave trough is moving southeastward over the Red River Valley toward the Upper Great Lakes. The SPC notes that "a couple of ongoing thunderstorm clusters will probably continue this morning" in response to forcing for ascent, though "there is low confidence in the evolution of these clusters and an associated severe risk."

Additional storm development is likely as a cold front pushes southeast across the Upper Midwest later today. Model guidance suggests western Iowa may see a greater overlap of CAPE and shear this afternoon, and the SPC will re-evaluate whether a mesoscale corridor warrants an upgrade in subsequent outlooks.

Southern High Plains and Ozarks

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Ample heating of an adequately moist but deepening boundary layer will support a thermodynamic profile favoring severe gusts with the stronger cores.

Further east into Oklahoma and the Ozarks, ongoing elevated storms from northern Oklahoma may diminish through midday, though additional development along outflow boundaries could yield localized severe potential. The SPC has deferred severe highlights in this area due to low predictability.

Arizona

Widely scattered storms may develop over the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain in southeast Arizona this afternoon, gradually spreading into the lower deserts this evening. Steep lapse rates support a risk for severe wind gusts, and the SPC has introduced low-probability severe wind areas for the region.

Overnight hail threat: Nebraska and South Dakota

A distinct severe weather window opens overnight tonight across northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota. Low-level moistening through 850 mb, combined with 7–8°C/km mid-level lapse rates, will promote adequate buoyancy for robust updrafts. Strong shear across the region will likely support organized convection, including a supercell or two, capable of producing large hail.

Confidence in storm coverage is limited due to weak forcing for ascent, but any storms that do develop will have the ingredients for large hail production.

Yesterday's severe weather recap

Over the past 24 hours, the National Weather Service received 112 wind reports and 58 hail reports, with no tornado reports. The most significant hail fell in West Plains, Missouri, where 3-inch diameter hail was reported at 2140 UTC. Additional reports of hen egg–sized (2-inch) and golf ball–sized hail came from the same area shortly after.

Wind damage was widespread across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Mississippi Valley, with trees down on roads and power lines reported in Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, and New York. A milk barn in Missouri suffered significant damage from high winds.

Looking ahead: Day 2 and Day 3

The SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Marginal Risk across portions of Nebraska, Missouri, South Dakota, and the Northern Plains for Saturday, August 8. The Day 3 outlook also shows a Marginal Risk for Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, South Dakota, and the Northern Plains on Sunday, August 9.

No higher-end severe weather threats are anticipated through the weekend at this time.

Safety reminders for damaging wind events

Damaging wind gusts can arrive with little warning, especially during pulse severe thunderstorms. If you're in the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon:

  • Monitor radar and local NWS warnings closely between 3 PM and 9 PM.
  • Move indoors if you see lightning or hear thunder—if thunder roars, go indoors.
  • Avoid parking under large trees or near structures that could shed debris in high winds.
  • Secure outdoor furniture, trash cans, and other loose items that could become projectiles.

Third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb, though Wireless Emergency Alerts for severe thunderstorm warnings still break through on most phones. If you're concerned about missing alerts overnight—particularly during the Nebraska/South Dakota hail threat—consider adjusting your notification settings or using a service that can bypass Do Not Disturb entirely.

VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.