TL;DR

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across south-central and southeast Texas today. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats. No tornado activity was reported in the last 24 hours, though 13 hail reports came in from Texas yesterday.

What's driving today's setup?

A shortwave trough moving eastward from northern Mexico is the main player today. Early morning satellite imagery shows this feature tracking through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, bringing modest mid-level flow and large-scale lift.

A weak surface front extends from Deep South Texas northeastward through the western Gulf, across northern Florida. Numerous showers and thunderstorms were already underway this morning north of the front, stretching from the Texas Hill Country eastward to the Upper Texas Coast.

As the shortwave continues east, a surface low is expected to develop over the western Gulf. SPC forecasters anticipate this low will track quickly northeastward, sitting just off the Deep South Texas Coast by 00Z Saturday (7 pm CDT Friday), then off southern Louisiana by 06Z (1 am CDT Saturday).

Where is the highest risk today?

SPC's Day 1 outlook places a Marginal Risk across south-central and southeast Texas, including the Texas Hill Country and Upper Texas Coast.

The Texas threat window is active now and will continue through this afternoon.

Texas

Thermodynamic conditions across south Texas are expected to remain largely unchanged through much of the day, with modest elevated instability persisting in moist southwesterly mid-level flow. Despite numerous showers and thunderstorms already in progress, an increase in deep-layer shear this afternoon could allow slightly more organized storm structures.

Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the strongest storms. Yesterday's activity across the state produced 13 hail reports, including golf ball-size hail (1.75 inches) in Asherton and ping pong ball-size hail (1.5 inches) in the Houston metro area near First Colony. One wind report came in from the Zilker neighborhood in Austin, where social media video showed downed tree limbs.

What to expect: hazards and timing

Texas (now through late afternoon):

  • Isolated large hail, up to golf ball size
  • Isolated damaging wind gusts
  • Peak activity: mid-afternoon through early evening

Storms will be widely scattered, not a solid line. Most locations will see rain, but only a small percentage of storms will reach severe thresholds.

Tomorrow's outlook

SPC has upgraded Saturday (Day 2) to Slight (level 2 of 5) across Georgia and Florida. The shortwave trough will continue eastward, and the surface low will track into the Southeast. Expect a more organized severe weather threat across the Florida Panhandle and Georgia on Saturday, with all hazards in play.

Day 3 (Sunday) shows a Marginal Risk returning to parts of Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, and the Mississippi Valley as another system approaches from the west.

What you should do

If you're in south Texas:

  • Monitor radar this afternoon and evening. Storms will be isolated, but they can intensify quickly.
  • Secure outdoor items that could blow away or be damaged by hail.
  • If you're driving, be prepared to pull over if hail begins. Do not park under overpasses on highways.
  • Charge your phone. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your location, you'll want reliable access to updates.

VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.