TL;DR
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for southeast New Mexico and far west Texas today, October 27, 2026. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening, with large hail the primary threat. Coverage will remain low due to weak atmospheric forcing.
Where is the risk today?
The Marginal Risk area covers a small zone along and east of the Guadalupe Mountains, spanning southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. This includes areas near Carlsbad, New Mexico, and the sparsely populated desert regions of Culberson and Reeves counties in Texas.
The SPC outlook notes that "isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today over a small part of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas." This is the only area in the continental United States under any severe weather risk today.
What's driving the storms?
Broad cyclonic flow over the western half of the country is bringing west-southwesterly winds across the southern Rockies. The SPC Day 1 outlook indicates that modest moisture and daytime heating will create at least moderate instability by evening. Morning high-resolution forecast models show the development of isolated strong thunderstorms as the afternoon progresses.
The limiting factor today is weak forcing aloft. Without a strong upper-level disturbance or surface boundary to organize storms, coverage will remain low. The SPC notes that "coverage of convection will be low due to weak forcing aloft."
What hazards are expected?
Large hail is the primary concern. The SPC states that "a storm or two could produce large hail" in the Marginal Risk area.
Other hazards:
- Lightning with any storm that develops
- Locally heavy rain in brief, intense downpours
- Gusty winds near the strongest cells
Tornado risk is not mentioned in today's outlook, and damaging straight-line winds are not expected to be widespread.
When will storms develop?
Storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening. The Day 1 outlook is valid from 8:00 AM CDT Tuesday through 7:00 AM CDT Wednesday (1300Z October 27 through 1200Z October 28).
Peak storm activity will likely occur between late afternoon and early evening, roughly 5:00 PM to 9:00 PM local time, as daytime heating maximizes instability.
What does Marginal Risk mean?
Marginal Risk is the lowest category on the SPC's five-tier severe weather scale. It indicates that isolated severe storms are possible, but coverage will be limited and not all storms will reach severe thresholds.
In a Marginal Risk area, severe weather is not expected to be widespread. Most locations will see no severe weather at all, but a few storms may produce hail one inch in diameter or larger, wind gusts of 58 mph or higher, or in rare cases, a brief tornado.
Today's setup fits the Marginal Risk profile well: modest instability, weak forcing, and low storm coverage.
Beyond today
The SPC Day 2 outlook (valid Wednesday) shows no severe weather risk anywhere in the United States. Day 3 (valid Thursday) currently shows no categorical risk areas, though forecasters are monitoring the Southern Plains for potential storm development later in the week.
After several consecutive days of Slight Risk outlooks across the Southwest, today marks a quieter pattern as upper-level energy shifts eastward and moisture remains limited.
Bottom line
If you're in southeast New Mexico or far west Texas, keep an eye on the sky this evening. Storms will be isolated, but any that develop could produce large hail. Most of the region will stay dry.
For the rest of the country, severe weather is off the table today. The next chance for organized severe storms will depend on how the pattern evolves later this week.
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