TL;DR

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for parts of the Southeast, southern and central Appalachians, and the Texas South Plains today. Isolated damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are the primary threat this afternoon across the Southeast and into Virginia, West Virginia, and Kentucky. Over the Texas South Plains, scattered storms may produce isolated large hail and severe gusts during peak heating. No tornado threat is forecast.

What's driving today's severe weather?

Monday's setup is split between two distinct weather features. In the eastern United States, a cold front is advancing eastward across the Ohio Valley and into the central Appalachians. Radar this morning showed three mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) tracking along the cool side of this boundary. According to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the front will be positioned from northern Mississippi northeastward to western Virginia by this afternoon.

Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will support moderate buoyancy as daytime heating takes hold. The SPC notes that "scattered to numerous single and multicell thunderstorms are expected to form" by early to mid afternoon, with the strongest activity focused over Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia where flow fields are slightly stronger.

Meanwhile, over the southern High Plains, a mid to upper-level ridge is shifting eastward as an upper trough over eastern Oklahoma moves away from west Texas. A frontal zone and residual outflow will drape over the Texas South Plains this afternoon, providing a focus for storm development within a moist plume extending west-northwestward into the Caprock and South Plains.

Where is the Marginal Risk today?

The Marginal Risk area covers three zones:

  • Southeast and southern/central Appalachians: From northern Mississippi northeastward through Kentucky, West Virginia, and into western Virginia
  • Texas South Plains: The Caprock region and surrounding areas of west Texas

The northern portion of the Southeast risk area—particularly Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia—is where the SPC expects the most organized severe potential, thanks to stronger upper-level winds and better storm-scale dynamics near the advancing cold front.

What hazards are expected?

Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern across the Southeast and Appalachian zones. The SPC forecasts that "a few of the stronger downdrafts will likely yield a threat for strong to locally severe gusts (50 to 60 mph) and pockets of wind damage" during the afternoon hours. Storms are expected to weaken by early evening as instability wanes.

Over the Texas South Plains, the threat is more balanced. The SPC indicates that "a couple of stronger thunderstorms may yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts" during peak heating this afternoon. Hail will be the main concern here, though damaging winds remain possible with any stronger cells.

Tornado risk is not part of today's outlook. No mesocyclone signatures or low-level shear parameters support rotating storms in either risk area.

When will storms be most active?

Timing varies by region:

  • Southeast and Appalachians: Storm development is forecast for early to mid afternoon, roughly 2 PM to 6 PM local time. Activity should taper off by early evening as the front pushes east and instability decreases.
  • Texas South Plains: Scattered storms are expected to develop during peak heating—mid to late afternoon—and dissipate during the evening hours.

Both zones will see relatively short-lived severe weather windows, typical of Marginal Risk days where instability and shear are modest.

Yesterday's severe weather recap

The past 24 hours brought 55 wind reports and 19 hail reports across a dozen states, but no tornadoes. Colorado dominated the hail tally, with reports of baseball-size hail (2.75 inches) near Wild Horse and a measured 3.10-inch stone 9 miles south of Brandon. The largest hailstone of the day came from 4 miles northeast of Wild Horse, where a spotter reported baseball-size hail that damaged a vehicle windshield.

Wind damage was more widespread, with reports spanning Kansas, Texas, Missouri, South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia. Notable gusts included 61 mph reported by an emergency manager 4 miles west-southwest of Cedar Hill, Texas, and 60 mph recorded at the Hamilton, Texas AWOS site. Trees and power lines were downed in multiple communities across the region.

Indiana saw a single hail report—2-inch stones in Liberty, verified by photo.

What about tomorrow?

The SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Marginal Risk across parts of the Southeast as the cold front continues its eastward march. Severe weather potential will remain low-end, with isolated wind and hail threats possible Tuesday afternoon. No significant severe weather is forecast for Day 3.

Stay alert, stay prepared

Even on Marginal Risk days, severe thunderstorms can produce localized damage. If you're in the risk area today, monitor radar through the afternoon and have a way to receive warnings. Outdoor sirens may not be audible indoors, and third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb, though Wireless Emergency Alerts for severe thunderstorm warnings still break through on most phones.

VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.