A Quiet Sunday After a Busy Week

After a busy week of severe weather across the Midwest and Plains, the atmosphere is taking a breather on Sunday, April 19, 2026. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk—the lowest category on the five-tier scale—for two separate regions: portions of central Texas and the Upper Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians.

Today's threat is limited in both scope and intensity. No tornado watches are currently active, and the day's severe weather potential consists of isolated marginally severe hail in Texas and scattered damaging wind gusts in Ohio and surrounding states.

What's Driving Today's Setup

Two distinct weather systems are shaping Sunday's outlook, each producing a modest severe weather threat in different parts of the country.

Central Texas: Post-Frontal Instability

In central Texas, isolated elevated thunderstorms have been active since Saturday morning in the wake of a cold front. According to the SPC's Day 1 outlook issued at 1103 AM CDT on April 18, "Isolated intense thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning in the post-frontal regime across central TX. These storms have produced hail and gusty winds for several hours."

Storm reports from the past 24 hours confirm this activity. The National Weather Service documented three hail reports in Texas, including:

  • Quarter-size hail at Lake Ivie, 2 miles west-southwest of Leaday
  • Pea to quarter-size hail in the Gresham area, 3 miles east-southeast of Noonday
  • One-inch hail in downtown Whitehouse

Wind damage was also reported, with a tree uprooted behind a Lowe's store on the south side of Tyler and another tree downed on a county road southwest of Tatum.

The SPC notes that this scenario is expected to "shift eastward and weaken early this afternoon as the primary upper jet moves into AR and away from the region." The Marginal Risk area extends into parts of Arkansas and Louisiana to account for any lingering activity, but the overall trend is toward diminishing severe potential through Sunday afternoon.

Upper Ohio Valley: Cold Front and Marginal Instability

Farther east, a cold front is pushing across the Ohio Valley, bringing a band of widespread clouds and light precipitation. The SPC's outlook describes a narrow corridor of marginal afternoon instability ahead of the front, where temperatures are warming through the 70s under mostly clear skies.

"Forecast soundings show strong mid-level winds and steep low-level lapse rates, supportive of strong downdrafts in any vigorous convection," the SPC explains. However, confidence in organized severe weather is limited. Computer forecast models consistently show very few strong storms developing through the day.

The 20Z update on April 18 removed the 15% wind probabilities from the Upper Ohio Valley after observational trends showed wind gusts generally in the 30-knot range with isolated cases reaching the low 40s. "Isolated wind damage remains possible, but a more organized threat is not expected given weak buoyancy downstream," the SPC stated.

One wind report from Missouri—several small and large branches snapped 3 miles west-southwest of Flint Hill—illustrates the type of minor damage possible with today's storms.

Timing and Locations

Texas

Isolated elevated thunderstorms capable of producing marginally severe hail are possible through early to mid-afternoon on Sunday. The threat is centered across central Texas, with the potential extending into portions of eastern Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana as storms drift eastward.

Primary hazard: Hail up to one inch in diameter

Peak timing: Late morning through early afternoon

Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians

Scattered thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the cold front during the afternoon and early evening hours. Any storms that intensify could produce isolated damaging wind gusts.

Primary hazard: Wind gusts 40-50 mph

Peak timing: Mid to late afternoon

Areas to watch include:

  • Western and central Ohio
  • Northern West Virginia
  • Western Pennsylvania
  • Portions of eastern Kentucky

What to Expect

Sunday's severe weather threat is conditional and isolated. Most locations within the Marginal Risk areas will not experience severe weather. For those who do see storms, the hazards will be brief and localized.

In Texas, the main concern is small hail that could accumulate on roadways and damage vegetation. Motorists should be prepared for sudden reductions in visibility if hail begins falling.

In the Ohio Valley, the primary risk is from downburst winds capable of snapping tree limbs and causing sporadic power outages. Given that trees are now fully leafed out across the region, even modest wind gusts can bring down weakened branches.

The SPC does not anticipate issuing any severe thunderstorm watches for either region on Sunday, though individual severe thunderstorm warnings remain possible if storms meet warning criteria.

Beyond Sunday

The SPC's Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks show no severe weather risk categories for Monday, April 20, or Tuesday, April 21. A general thunderstorm pattern will continue across the Northeast and Great Lakes, but severe weather is not expected.

This calm period offers a welcome reprieve after the intense outbreak that unfolded on Friday and Saturday. Residents across the Plains and Midwest who experienced severe weather in recent days should use Sunday to assess any damage, clear debris, and restock emergency supplies.

For those in today's Marginal Risk areas, the threat is minor but not zero. Stay aware of changing weather conditions, especially if you have outdoor plans during the afternoon hours.

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