TL;DR

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for central and eastern New Mexico into far west Texas for Sunday afternoon and evening, October 25, 2026. Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible, mainly between 3 p.m. and 9 p.m. MDT. The greatest threat is along a surface boundary stretching from east-central New Mexico into west Texas.

Another Day, Another Marginal Risk for the Southwest

Sunday marks the fifth consecutive day the Southwest has been under a severe weather risk, though activity continues to wind down as the upper-level trough that has dominated the region all week begins to shift eastward. Today's Marginal Risk covers much of the same territory as Saturday's outlook: central and eastern New Mexico, far west Texas, and the western Texas Panhandle.

Overnight, storms produced 3 hail reports and 7 wind reports across New Mexico and Texas, including quarter-size hail near Canutillo, Texas, and a 75 mph wind gust 25 miles north of Organ, New Mexico. A large tree was uprooted in Santa Fe, with a branch crashing through a residence window. These reports underscore that even Marginal Risk days can produce localized damage when storms organize.

Today's setup is similar but slightly less robust. The SPC outlook highlights three distinct areas of concern within the broader Marginal Risk zone.

Where is the highest risk today?

The SPC has identified three sub-regions within the Marginal Risk area, each with slightly different storm characteristics:

Central New Mexico: A mid-level cold pocket moving across the region will interact with residual low-level moisture this afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest hail will be the primary threat in the strongest cells, though the risk of severe-sized hail (1 inch or larger) is uncertain. Storms are expected to develop late afternoon.

Southeast New Mexico and Far West Texas: Strong daytime heating will push MUCAPE values to around 2000 J/kg with steeper low-level lapse rates. Any persistent cells in this area will pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Limited coverage keeps the risk at Marginal rather than Slight.

East-Central New Mexico into West Texas: A surface baroclinic zone—essentially a temperature boundary—is forecast to stretch from east of Albuquerque to near Dalhart, Texas, by early evening. Multiple high-resolution models suggest one or two strong storms will track along this boundary with supercell structures possible. Steep lapse rates and favorable wind profiles support a risk of hail and perhaps a tornado along this corridor.

This third area represents the highest tornado potential for the day, though the SPC emphasizes the risk remains isolated.

When will the storms hit?

Storm initiation is expected during the mid-to-late afternoon hours, roughly 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. MDT, as daytime heating peaks and the shortwave trough moves into eastern New Mexico. The SPC notes the trough will reach eastern New Mexico by early evening, providing the lift needed for storm development.

Peak severe weather is most likely between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. MDT, with storms gradually weakening after sunset as instability decreases. The Day 1 outlook is valid through 6 a.m. MDT Monday (1200Z).

Residents in the risk area should monitor radar closely during the late afternoon and evening hours, particularly if storms develop along the surface boundary from Albuquerque eastward toward the Texas border.

What hazards are expected?

The SPC outlook summary lists three hazards for today's Marginal Risk:

  • Isolated large hail (1 inch or greater)
  • A tornado or two
  • Isolated damaging wind gusts across far west Texas

Hail appears to be the most widespread threat, with multiple areas favoring hail production due to steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE. Wind gusts may accompany the strongest cells, particularly in southeast New Mexico and far west Texas where low-level wind shear is slightly stronger.

The tornado threat is the most conditional. Favorable hodographs—charts that show how wind speed and direction change with height—support rotating updrafts along the surface boundary, but storm coverage is expected to remain limited. The SPC's phrasing, "a tornado or two," suggests one or two brief tornadoes are possible if storms can tap into the boundary-layer convergence along the baroclinic zone.

Context: A week of Southwest storms

This is the fifth straight day the Southwest has been under a severe weather risk. The persistent upper trough over Arizona has funneled deep southwesterly flow across New Mexico and west Texas all week, creating repeated rounds of isolated to scattered severe storms.

Saturday's outlook produced similar hazards across much of the same area. Friday and Thursday also featured risks for New Mexico and neighboring states. While no tornadoes have been reported in the last 24 hours, the region has seen consistent hail and wind reports, with localized damage to trees and structures.

By Monday, the trough is forecast to shift eastward, finally bringing an end to the active pattern across the Southwest. The SPC Day 2 outlook for Monday shows a Marginal Risk extending into the Central and Southern Plains, signaling the focus will shift away from New Mexico and west Texas.

What should you do?

If you live in central or eastern New Mexico, far west Texas, or the western Texas Panhandle, here's what to do today:

  • Monitor radar and local NWS warnings between 3 p.m. and 9 p.m. MDT.
  • Have a way to receive warnings that works even if you're outdoors or away from your phone. Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) for tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings will sound on most smartphones, even if Do Not Disturb is enabled.
  • Move vehicles under cover if large hail is approaching. Quarter-size hail can dent vehicles and break windshields.
  • Avoid being caught outside when storms approach. Lightning is a threat with all thunderstorms, not just severe ones.
  • If a tornado warning is issued, move to the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows. Interior rooms like bathrooms or closets offer the best protection.

Marginal Risk days are often quiet across most of the risk area, but the storms that do develop can still produce localized severe weather. The key is situational awareness during the peak hours.

Looking ahead to Monday

The SPC Day 2 outlook for Monday, October 26, shows a Marginal Risk extending from the Central Plains into the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast as the upper trough continues its eastward progression. Severe weather potential remains low, but isolated storms may produce gusty winds or small hail.

For the Southwest, Monday looks quiet—finally. After five consecutive days under a severe weather risk, residents of New Mexico and west Texas can expect a break from storm activity as high pressure builds back into the region.

VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.