Bottom line

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across parts of the Southeast today. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as a cold front moves eastward through the afternoon and evening. The window for severe weather runs from midday through tonight.

What's driving today's weather?

A mature cyclone centered over the Upper Midwest is steering two shortwave troughs across the eastern United States. The first trough is pivoting northeastward through the Ohio Valley, while a second, weaker disturbance is tracking eastward through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

A cold front extends southeastward from a surface low over northwest Wisconsin, arcing through far northeast Illinois and southward to another low over far eastern Louisiana. Dewpoints in the mid-60s are in place across western Kentucky, with low-60s moisture extending as far north as eastern Wisconsin. This moist, modified tropical airmass is providing the fuel for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

Thunderstorm coverage will be highest from central and eastern Kentucky across middle and eastern Tennessee into northern Alabama and Georgia.

Where is the highest risk today?

The Marginal Risk area covers a broad swath of the Southeast. Cities in or near the risk area include:

  • Nashville, Tennessee
  • Huntsville, Alabama
  • Chattanooga, Tennessee
  • Atlanta, Georgia (southern fringe)

The combination of moderate low-level wind shear and ample moisture creates an environment where storms could briefly organize. Damaging wind gusts are also possible across the broader Marginal Risk area, though the threat remains isolated. Poor mid-level lapse rates and widespread cloud cover will limit updraft strength, keeping the overall severe threat low.

What hazards should you prepare for?

Today's setup favors two primary hazards:

  • Brief tornadoes: Low probability, but not zero. These would likely be weak, short-track tornadoes, but any tornado is dangerous.
  • Damaging wind gusts: Isolated strong gusts are possible, particularly where thunderstorms can tap into the stronger low-level winds.

Hail is not a significant concern in today's outlook. The primary limiting factor across the region is buoyancy—MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg are modest, and poor lapse rates will keep most storms from becoming especially intense. However, the moderate vertical shear, concentrated below 700 mb, is enough to support brief rotation in the strongest cells.

When will storms arrive?

Showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing this morning across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and northward into Illinois and Ohio. Thunderstorm activity will continue and expand through the day as the cold front pushes eastward.

The SPC Day 1 outlook is valid from 1300 UTC Wednesday (7:00 AM CST) through 1200 UTC Thursday (6:00 AM CST). The peak window for severe weather is expected this afternoon and evening as daytime heating adds a bit more instability to the atmosphere. Storms will gradually weaken tonight as the front moves east and instability decreases.

If you're in the Marginal Risk area, monitor radar and local NWS forecasts closely this afternoon and evening. Conditions can change quickly, and a Marginal Risk means severe weather is possible but not expected at any single location.

Yesterday's severe weather

The past 24 hours brought 4 wind reports, but no tornadoes or hail.

No tornado watches were issued, and today's Marginal Risk represents a continuation of the unsettled pattern across the Southeast as the cold front slowly progresses eastward.

What about tomorrow?

SPC Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks show no severe weather risk categories in place. The cold front will push offshore, and high pressure will build in behind it, bringing quieter weather to much of the eastern United States for the end of the week.

Staying alert during overnight severe weather

November severe weather events often occur during the evening and overnight hours, when many people are asleep. Third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb, though Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) for tornado warnings still break through on most phones. If you're concerned about sleeping through a warning, consider placing your phone on a nightstand with the ringer on, or use a NOAA Weather Radio with a tone alarm.

VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.