TL;DR
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the mid-Mississippi Valley today. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.
A quiet severe weather pattern continues across most of the United States on August 5, 2026, with only isolated storm activity expected. The SPC Day 1 outlook identifies a Marginal Risk area in the mid-Mississippi Valley—not expected to produce widespread severe weather.
The most organized threat today centers on the mid-Mississippi Valley, where a stationary front and upper-level disturbances will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Where is the highest risk today?
The Marginal Risk area covers the mid-Mississippi Valley, primarily affecting eastern Iowa and northern Missouri. Early this morning, a cluster of strong to locally severe thunderstorms moved across the Iowa-Missouri border near and immediately north of a stationary front. These storms produced wind gusts up to 69 mph in Unionville, Missouri, along with scattered tree and power pole damage across several communities.
According to the SPC's 0745 AM CDT outlook, "Later today, ascent associated with an upstream disturbance moving through the base of the larger-scale trough over NE into IA, will favor additional storm development as the boundary layer heats south of the frontal zone."
Cities in or near the risk area include:
- Des Moines, Iowa
- Cedar Rapids, Iowa
- Columbia, Missouri
- Kirksville, Missouri
What hazards are expected?
Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat across the Marginal Risk area today. The mid-Mississippi Valley may see gusts strong enough to down tree limbs and cause isolated power outages, similar to the damage reported overnight in northern Missouri.
Hail is not a primary concern in the risk area today, though isolated small hail cannot be ruled out with the stronger cells.
Tornadoes are not expected. The atmospheric setup lacks the low-level wind shear and focused lift necessary for rotating storms.
When will the storms develop?
Mid-Mississippi Valley
Storms are already ongoing early this morning across the Iowa-Missouri border. These will likely continue east of the Mississippi River but may weaken before reaching the Illinois border.
Additional development is expected this afternoon as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere south of the frontal boundary. The SPC notes that "moderate buoyancy is forecast by guidance and sufficient deep-layer shear will support some potential storm organization." The stronger storms may produce episodic severe weather before diminishing during the evening hours.
Peak activity: 2 PM to 8 PM CDT
What happened overnight?
The past 24 hours produced 12 wind reports and 2 hail reports.
The most significant activity occurred across northern Missouri early this morning, where a line of thunderstorms produced measured wind gusts up to 69 mph at a mesonet site in Unionville. The same system downed trees and power poles across Unionville, South Lineville, Lemons, and portions of Mercer and Sullivan counties.
In Iowa, a personal weather station 2 miles south-southwest of Lenox measured a 63 mph gust around 3 AM CDT.
Tomorrow's outlook
The SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Marginal Risk across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota, along with areas of the Northeast and Great Lakes. A weak upper-level system will support scattered storm development, but no organized severe weather outbreak is anticipated.
By Day 3 (August 7), the outlook drops to General Thunderstorms nationwide, with no severe weather risk areas currently identified.
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