TL;DR
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for parts of the central and eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic today. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, with damaging winds the primary concern and a brief tornado or two also possible. The window for severe weather runs from mid-afternoon through early evening, roughly 4pm to 7pm local time, before activity weakens or moves offshore.
What's Driving Today's Weather?
An upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes this morning is pushing eastward across the Atlantic Coast states, bringing a 50-70 knot southwesterly mid-level jet with it. A weak surface low over the southern Mid-Atlantic is tracking northeastward toward southern New England along a cold front that will be the focus for thunderstorm development.
Ahead of the front, a moist low-level airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Morning soundings from Greensboro and New York showed a nearly saturated boundary layer, though low- and mid-level lapse rates remain modest—around 5.5 to 6.5°C per kilometer in the 700-500 mb layer, according to the SPC's 06:58 AM CST outlook. Widespread cloudiness is limiting heating potential across much of the region, which will keep instability relatively weak.
Where is the Marginal Risk Today?
The Marginal Risk area covers the central and eastern Carolinas and extends into southeastern Virginia and the coastal southern Mid-Atlantic. This includes:
- Central and eastern North Carolina
- Eastern South Carolina
- Southeastern Virginia
- Portions of the Delmarva Peninsula
The SPC notes that somewhat better diurnal heating should occur farther south, where afternoon instability (MLCAPE) could reach 1000-1250 J/kg across the central and eastern Carolinas. This is where the greatest potential for organized thunderstorms exists.
What Hazards Are Expected?
Damaging winds are the primary threat today. A lobe of mid-level vorticity embedded within the larger upper trough will overspread the Carolinas this afternoon and support thunderstorm development along and ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. The SPC forecasts a mix of loosely organized clusters and marginal supercell structures beginning around 16-18Z (11am-1pm EST).
Deep-layer shear of 30-40 knots will aid updraft organization, and if low-level lapse rates can steepen through filtered daytime heating, occasional damaging wind gusts become more likely.
A brief tornado or two is also possible, though low-level flow and related shear are not forecast to be particularly strong. Any tornado threat would be most likely across the central and eastern Carolinas during the afternoon hours.
Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells, though it is not the main concern today.
When Will Storms Develop?
Ongoing convection this morning along and ahead of the front may pose some risk for isolated damaging winds through the late morning, particularly where updrafts can organize into clusters.
The main window for severe weather is this afternoon into early evening, roughly 4pm to 7pm local time. Additional thunderstorm development is expected by 16-18Z (11am-1pm EST) along the cold front as it moves through the Carolinas. Activity should weaken and move offshore by early evening as the front pushes east and instability wanes.
Farther north across southern New England, the threat for strong gusty winds may extend into the afternoon, but the latest model forecast soundings suggest little potential for surface-based instability to develop in that region.
A Quiet Pattern Elsewhere
Outside the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, severe weather is not expected across the rest of the country today. The SPC mentions that an upper trough moving across the Southwest could support weak instability over parts of southeast Arizona this afternoon, where occasional small hail is possible with the strongest cores. However, deep-layer shear appears marginal for organized updrafts, and no severe weather risk area has been defined for that region.
No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are currently active nationwide, and the last 24 hours have been quiet with zero tornado, hail, or wind reports.
What Should You Do?
If you're in the Marginal Risk area across the Carolinas or southeastern Virginia, monitor radar and local forecasts this afternoon. Have a way to receive warnings—whether that's a NOAA Weather Radio, a smartphone weather app, or Wireless Emergency Alerts, which are pushed directly to your phone by the National Weather Service for tornado and flash flood warnings.
If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your location, move indoors and away from windows. Damaging wind gusts can arrive suddenly, especially with bow echoes or organized clusters.
If a tornado warning is issued, move immediately to the lowest floor of a sturdy building, ideally an interior room or hallway away from windows. Mobile homes and vehicles are not safe during tornadoes.
Third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb, though Wireless Emergency Alerts for tornado warnings still break through on most phones. For an additional layer of protection—especially at night—VORTEX Pro places phone calls when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about. Calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.
Looking Ahead
The SPC Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks do not currently highlight any areas with a defined severe weather risk. A quieter pattern is expected to settle in across much of the country this weekend as the upper trough exits the East Coast.
Stay weather-aware today if you're in the Carolinas, and check back tomorrow for the latest outlook.
VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.