TL;DR
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms across northern New York and New England today, July 14, 2026. Intense supercells are expected to produce large to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches), damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and multiple tornadoes—including the possibility of strong tornadoes—this afternoon and evening. Peak threat: 2pm to 8pm EDT across Vermont, New Hampshire, and western to central Maine.
Where is the highest risk today?
The Enhanced Risk—the SPC's third-highest threat category—covers portions of northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and western Maine. According to the SPC's Day 1 Convective Outlook, this region will see "an active and potentially impactful severe weather event" as intense supercells and organized clusters move southeastward through the afternoon and evening.
Cities in or near the Enhanced Risk area include:
- Burlington, Vermont
- Montpelier, Vermont
- Concord, New Hampshire
- Manchester, New Hampshire
- Portland, Maine
- Lewiston, Maine
- Plattsburgh, New York
A separate Slight Risk covers parts of Montana, where scattered severe winds and isolated hail are expected with evening thunderstorm clusters. Marginal Risk areas include the Florida Peninsula, where weak shear will limit organization but gusty winds remain possible with stronger afternoon storms.
What's driving today's severe weather?
Northern New England is positioned beneath a potent upper-level jet and elevated mixed layer (EML) moving eastward across the region. Morning convection over southern Quebec will weaken as it crosses into northern Maine, but in its wake, steepening lapse rates aloft and increasing low-level moisture will create a volatile environment.
By mid to late afternoon, moderate to locally strong instability will develop across the St. Lawrence River Valley and adjacent areas. The SPC forecasts mixed-layer convective available potential energy (MLCAPE) values of 2000–3000 J/kg—ample fuel for explosive thunderstorm updrafts. Strong mid-level flow around 50–60 knots will support effective bulk shear values conducive to supercells.
The wind profile is particularly concerning. While low-level winds will blow from the west-southwest, they'll veer sharply to north-northwesterly with height through the mid and upper levels. This creates significant storm-relative helicity (SRH), a measure of the potential for rotating updrafts. The SPC states that this setup "appears more than sufficient for updraft rotation, and multiple tornadoes may occur."
When will the storms hit?
Organized severe thunderstorms—including a mix of supercells and clusters—are expected to develop over southern Quebec and move southeastward into northern New England between 1pm and 4pm EDT (19–22 UTC).
The most intense activity will likely affect:
- Northern New York and Vermont: 2pm–5pm EDT
- New Hampshire: 3pm–6pm EDT
- Western and central Maine: 4pm–8pm EDT
As storms progress eastward through the evening, they may evolve into one or more intense clusters capable of producing "scattered to numerous damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes" as they approach the coast.
Residents across the Enhanced Risk area should have multiple ways to receive warnings throughout the afternoon and evening. Tornado warnings may be issued with limited lead time given the fast-moving nature of this system.
What are the specific threats?
Damaging winds
Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts are expected, with some gusts reaching or exceeding 75 mph. The SPC highlights that the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment supports a "significant threat for severe/damaging winds" with both supercells and organized clusters.
Large to very large hail
Hail is a major concern today. The SPC warns of "large to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches)" with supercells. Hailstones of this size can shatter windshields, dent vehicles, damage roofs, and injure anyone caught outdoors.
Tornadoes
Multiple tornadoes are possible. The combination of strong low-level shear, veering winds with height, and ample instability creates an environment capable of producing tornadoes rated EF2 or stronger.
Even as storms cluster and form into lines later in the evening, line-embedded tornadoes—often brief but still dangerous—will remain a threat as the system moves toward the coast.
What should you do right now?
If you live in or will be traveling through northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, or Maine today, take these steps:
- Monitor watches and warnings. The SPC may issue tornado watches this afternoon. When a watch is issued, that means conditions are favorable—stay alert. A tornado warning means a tornado has been detected or is imminent—take shelter immediately.
- Identify your safe space now. The safest place during a tornado is a basement or interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. Mobile homes are not safe in tornadoes—if you live in one, identify a nearby sturdy building or community shelter.
- Charge your devices. Severe storms can knock out power. Make sure your phone is fully charged and consider enabling location-based alerts.
- Have multiple ways to receive warnings. Outdoor sirens may not be audible indoors, especially in rural areas. Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) for tornado warnings will break through Do Not Disturb mode on most smartphones, but third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb. If you want a phone call that can ring through DND at any hour, consider a service like VORTEX Pro.
- Don't wait until you see the storm. Tornadoes can be wrapped in rain and difficult to see, especially in forested terrain common across New England. If a tornado warning is issued for your location, take shelter immediately—do not try to observe the storm.
- Secure outdoor items. Winds of 75+ mph can turn patio furniture, grills, and trampolines into dangerous projectiles.
- Avoid travel during peak hours if possible. If you must drive, understand that you may need to pull over and seek shelter in a sturdy building. Do not shelter under an overpass—this can create a wind tunnel effect and expose you to flying debris.
Montana: Scattered severe winds and hail
A separate Slight Risk covers portions of central Montana, where a mid-level shortwave trough will support convective development across the higher terrain of southwest Montana by late afternoon. Initial storms may produce isolated hail and severe winds as they move into central and eastern Montana through the evening.
The SPC notes that "scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail appear possible" as storms encounter greater low-level moisture and instability. While this is a lower-end threat compared to New England, residents in Billings, Great Falls, and Helena should remain weather-aware this evening.
Florida: Marginal threat for gusty winds
Across the Florida Peninsula, typical summertime thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. While wind shear will remain weak—limiting organization—the SPC notes that "occasional gusty winds may occur with the stronger thunderstorms" as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. This is a low-end threat, but brief downbursts capable of downing tree limbs and causing localized power outages are possible.
Yesterday, 15 wind reports were logged across Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, Nevada, and South Carolina, including a 78 mph gust in Arizona and multiple reports of downed trees in Florida. No tornadoes or hail were reported.
Why this setup is concerning
Enhanced Risks are relatively rare in New England. The combination of strong instability, significant wind shear, and favorable storm-relative helicity creates an environment more commonly seen in the Plains during spring. The SPC's explicit mention of "strong tornadoes" underscores the seriousness of today's threat.
Northern New England's terrain—heavily forested with limited visibility—can make tornado spotting difficult. Tornadoes may be rain-wrapped and obscured until they're very close. This makes timely warnings and immediate action even more critical.
The timing, during the afternoon and early evening when people are active and outdoors, increases exposure. If you have outdoor plans in the Enhanced Risk area today, have a plan to get indoors quickly if warnings are issued.
Bottom line
Today's severe weather threat across northern New England is significant. The SPC's Enhanced Risk reflects confidence in widespread severe weather, including the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds exceeding 75 mph. Peak activity will occur between 2pm and 8pm EDT across Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
Do not wait to prepare. Identify your safe space, charge your devices, and have multiple ways to receive warnings. If a tornado warning is issued for your location, act immediately—seconds matter.
Stay safe, stay informed, and take this threat seriously.
VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.