TL;DR

The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of northern Louisiana, central Mississippi, and central Alabama today, May 6, 2026. Supercells capable of all hazards—including strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds—are expected from late afternoon through evening. The tornado threat is highest from central Mississippi into central Alabama between roughly 5 p.m. and midnight CDT. Storms will grow upscale overnight with an increasing damaging wind risk across southern Alabama and central Georgia.

Where is the highest risk today?

The Enhanced Risk area covers portions of northern Louisiana, central Mississippi, and central Alabama. This includes the Jackson, Mississippi metro and extends eastward through Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Alabama.

Cities in or near the Enhanced Risk zone include:

A broader Slight Risk surrounds the Enhanced area, extending from eastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.

What's driving today's severe weather?

Two upper-level disturbances are phasing over the western United States this morning—one moving south through Utah and Colorado, the other off the southern California coast. According to the Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook, this evolution is strengthening mid- to upper-level winds from the southern Plains into New England, with 500-millibar flow potentially exceeding 100 knots from the lower Missouri Valley through the Ohio Valley.

A cold front currently extends from the Texas Hill Country northeastward into western Pennsylvania. That front will push slowly southward through the day, acting as the focal point for severe thunderstorm development.

Dewpoints in the low to mid-70s are already in place across Louisiana and western Mississippi this morning. The SPC notes that "mid 70s dewpoints possible from central LA into central MS by the afternoon," fueling strong instability. Mixed-layer CAPE values are forecast to reach 2,500 J/kg across the warm sector—ample energy for supercells.

Deep-layer wind shear will be strong across the region, and low-level wind shear will increase through the afternoon and evening as low-level flow strengthens. The SPC states that "low-level hodographs lengthen in response to strengthening low-level flow" from late afternoon into evening across central Mississippi and Alabama, supporting the potential for tornadoes.

When will the storms hit?

Initiation: Thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm sector from northern Louisiana into central Mississippi by 1 p.m. CDT (18Z). Additional development is possible along the front from northern Alabama into northern Louisiana around the same time.

Peak tornado threat: Late afternoon through evening, roughly 5 p.m. to midnight CDT, from central Mississippi into central Alabama. The SPC explicitly warns that "environmental conditions support the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe."

Overnight transition: Storms will begin to cluster and grow upscale through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind threat continuing into southern Alabama and central and southern Georgia overnight.

The very moist environment could support additional warm-sector storms throughout much of the evening and overnight, maintaining a continued risk for all severe hazards well after dark.

What are the primary threats?

Tornadoes

The tornado risk is significant, particularly from central Mississippi into central Alabama during the late afternoon and evening hours. The SPC notes that whether storms can tap into the increasing low-level shear "will largely be a function of storm mode"—discrete supercells will have the greatest tornado potential.

Environmental conditions support strong tornadoes. If supercells can remain discrete and avoid early clustering, tornado intensity could be EF2 or greater.

Large to very large hail

Hail will be the primary threat with early-developing storms across northern Louisiana and central Mississippi this afternoon. Any discrete supercells will be capable of producing very large hail—potentially golf ball size or larger.

Damaging winds

As storms cluster and grow upscale through the evening, damaging winds will become the dominant threat. The SPC forecasts "an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia" through the overnight hours.

Widespread wind damage is possible, including downed trees and power lines.

What should you do?

If you're in the Enhanced Risk area:

  • Have multiple ways to receive warnings. Do not rely solely on outdoor sirens, which are not designed to be heard indoors.
  • Identify your safe place now—an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. A basement, storm shelter, or interior bathroom or closet are best.
  • Charge your phone and have a backup battery. Keep shoes and a flashlight near your safe place.
  • Monitor radar and local NWS statements throughout the afternoon and evening.
  • If a tornado warning is issued for your location, take shelter immediately. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado.

Nighttime tornado risk:

A significant portion of tonight's severe weather will occur after dark. Tornadoes at night are more than twice as deadly as daytime tornadoes, according to a 2008 peer-reviewed study in Weather and Forecasting, largely because people are asleep and miss warnings.

Third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb mode on most phones, though Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) for tornado warnings still break through on most devices by default. If you rely on a weather app for alerts, ensure notifications are enabled and that your phone's volume is up or that WEA is active.

VORTEX Pro places phone calls when a tornado warning is issued for your saved location—calls bypass Do Not Disturb, ensuring you're woken if a warning is issued overnight.

If you're in the Slight Risk area:

Stay weather-aware. Severe storms are possible, though coverage will be more isolated than in the Enhanced zone. Have a plan and a way to receive warnings.

What about Texas?

A separate Slight Risk covers the western Texas Hill Country, where isolated supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watches are currently in effect for portions of central and western Texas, including the Hill Country, expiring at 1 p.m. CDT.

A pair of supercells was ongoing across southwest Texas (Crockett and Sutton Counties) early this morning. The SPC notes that environmental conditions favor storm maintenance for "at least an hour or two" before weakening.

Tomorrow's outlook

The SPC Day 2 outlook (valid Thursday, May 7) shows a Marginal Risk across portions of South Carolina and the Southeast as the cold front continues slowly southward. Severe weather coverage and intensity will be much lower than today.

VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.