TL;DR
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of the Dakotas and Montana this afternoon and evening. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts as a strong cold front sweeps eastward through the region. Storms will intensify late this afternoon and organize into a line by evening, tracking across western and central North Dakota and South Dakota through midnight.
The northern Plains face an active severe weather day as an upper-level trough emerges from the Rockies and drives a sharp cold front eastward. Behind the front, temperatures will drop sharply. Ahead of it, surface temperatures near 90°F and strong low-level winds will fuel a line of thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts across a swath from eastern Montana through the Dakotas.
Yesterday saw 54 wind reports across the West and Plains, with the strongest gust reaching 80 mph near Green Valley, Arizona. No tornadoes were reported. Today's setup shifts the severe weather focus farther north and east.
Where is the highest risk today?
The Slight Risk area covers portions of eastern Montana, western and central North Dakota, and western South Dakota. Cities in or near the risk zone include:
- Dickinson, North Dakota
- Rapid City, South Dakota
- Miles City, Montana
The SPC outlook notes that the strongest storms are expected along and just ahead of the cold front, where low- and mid-level wind shear will be most favorable for organized severe weather.
What's driving today's storms?
A strong upper-level trough currently positioned over Idaho is tracking east-northeastward and will emerge onto the Plains by late this afternoon. Morning water vapor imagery shows the system's circulation clearly defined, with strong westerly flow aloft overspreading the northern Plains.
Ahead of the approaching cold front, surface heating will push temperatures into the upper 80s to near 90°F along the Montana–North Dakota border. This heating, combined with modest low-level moisture, will destabilize the atmosphere enough to support thunderstorm development. The SPC notes that morning computer models suggest storms will organize into a line as they track eastward into western and central North Dakota and South Dakota by 00Z (7pm CDT).
The primary hazard will be severe wind gusts. Strong low- and mid-level flow near the front will support organized downdrafts capable of producing damaging winds as the line matures.
When will the storms hit?
Thunderstorms will begin to intensify in the vicinity of the cold front through the afternoon, roughly between 3pm and 5pm CDT. The line is expected to track quickly eastward into parts of western and central North Dakota and South Dakota by 7pm CDT (00Z), continuing through the evening and overnight hours.
Peak severe weather is most likely between 4pm and midnight CDT across the Slight Risk area.
Secondary threats farther south
South of the primary severe threat, a secondary area of concern exists across the central Rockies and High Plains. Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains of central Colorado this afternoon and spread eastward into the Plains. The SPC outlook notes that this activity will be high-based and occur in a weakly unstable environment, but strong outflow winds remain possible as storms spread into western Nebraska and northwest Kansas during the evening.
A third area of thunderstorms is expected over Utah and western Colorado, where considerable low-level moisture will support another round of strong storms this afternoon. Deep-layer wind shear remains sufficient for rotating storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Activity should spread into western Colorado by early evening before weakening.
What should you do?
If you live in the Slight Risk area, take these steps:
- Monitor radar and warnings closely starting mid-afternoon. Conditions can change quickly once storms organize into a line.
- Secure outdoor items that could become projectiles in high winds—patio furniture, grills, trash cans, and trampolines.
- Identify your safe space indoors. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. Damaging wind gusts can shatter glass and turn debris into hazards.
- Charge your devices now. Severe storms can knock out power for hours or days.
- If you're driving, avoid being on the road during the peak storm window. If you're caught in high winds, pull over safely, stay in your vehicle with your seatbelt on, and wait for the storm to pass.
Wireless Emergency Alerts will be sent to phones in warned areas if a severe thunderstorm warning is issued with a destructive damage threat tag. Third-party weather apps are silenced by Do Not Disturb, though Wireless Emergency Alerts for severe warnings still break through on most phones.
Looking ahead
The SPC Day 2 outlook shows a Marginal Risk for parts of the central Plains, Midwest, and Northeast on Monday as the system continues eastward. By Day 3 (Tuesday), a Slight Risk returns to portions of the Midwest, Northeast, and Great Lakes as the upper trough remains positioned over the eastern United States.
For now, the focus remains on today's wind threat across the northern Plains. Stay weather-aware this afternoon and evening.
VORTEX is a free web app at vortexintel.app that monitors severe weather nationwide. Pro ($4.99/month) places phone calls to your phone when a tornado or flash flood warning is issued for a location you care about — calls can ring through Do Not Disturb once you enable Emergency Bypass for the number, unlike most third-party app notifications.